Some fixtures need a storyline invented for them. This one comes with its own maths.
The Redbacks host FC Melbourne Srbija at The Web on Friday night with the VPL1 finals race compressed into its tightest shape yet. Eltham sit sixth on 32 points after Bulleen’s win at Western United on Sunday nudged them up to 33, with fourth-placed Melbourne Victory on 34 and Manningham a further two back on 30. Srbija are eighth on 29, three behind Eltham with a game in hand. Beat them and the gap becomes six with four rounds left, a buffer worth real money in a race this congested. Lose, and they are level with games in reach. That is the whole preview in two sentences, but the detail makes it more interesting.
Eltham’s form line reads well. Unbeaten in four since the Western United loss, with a 6-1 demolition of Langwarrin, a 3-1 win over North Geelong and then last Saturday’s 1-1 at North Sunshine, rescued in the 91st minute when Josh Millar forced home a Josh Dennett long throw after an afternoon of sieges, woodwork and goal-line clearances. The response in that final ten minutes said plenty about the group, and Friday brings the chance to turn one point into four inside a week.
Srbija’s season is heading the other way. They opened July with a 3-2 win at Northcote but have since lost consecutive home games 1-0, first to Manningham and then, more alarmingly for them, to bottom-placed Port Melbourne, a side that had conceded five the previous week. The pattern behind those results is worth knowing. Srbija have scored just 24 goals in 20 matches, the lowest output anywhere near the top half, but conceded only 23, so they stay in games and grind them tight. Eltham won the April meeting 2-1 at Srbija’s place, and every meeting with them tends to live on fine margins.
That suits a home side with this attack. Forty-nine goals for the season, the synthetic surface Eltham know better than anyone, and a Friday night crowd at The Web have unpicked tighter defences than this one. Patience will matter, because Srbija will make it ugly for as long as they can. The equaliser at Larissa Reserve took 91 minutes of persistence, and the same appetite from the first whistle should not need that long to pay off.
Kick-off is 8:30pm Friday at The Web.
Up the ‘Backs.